The certainty ladder, and marking where your information came from
Most learners get to B2 with one word for uncertainty: siguro. Tagalog has at least ten, arranged on a fine scale, and a second, separate system for saying where you got the information. Careful Tagalog answers both questions at once, and news Tagalog is built almost entirely out of this machinery.
| System | The question it answers | Words |
|---|---|---|
| Modality | How confident am I? | tiyak, malamang, marahil, tila, maaaring, baka, siguro, yata |
| Evidentiality | How do I know? | daw/raw, ayon kay/sa, anang, diumano, sabi-sabi |
They are independent. You can be very sure of something you heard second-hand, or doubtful about something you saw yourself.
| Word | Strength | Register | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| tiyak | certain | any | Tiyak na darating siya. |
| walang duda | certain | formal | Walang duda sa resulta. |
| malamang | likely | any | Malamang nasa bahay siya. |
| marahil | probably | formal / written | Marahil ay nagkamali ako. |
| tila | it seems | formal / neutral | Tila uulan mamaya. |
| wari / waring | it seems | literary | Wari'y natutulog ang bayan. |
| maaaring | may | formal | Maaaring totoo ito. |
| baka | might | casual | Baka mahulog ka! |
| siguro | probably | casual | Siguro pagod lang siya. |
| yata | I think | casual | Tama yata. |
Baka is not neutral. It leans toward something you would rather avoid, which is why it doubles as a warning.
Baka mahulog ka. — You might fall. (= careful!)
Baka wala siya. — He might not be there. (= and that would be a problem)
For a neutral guess, use siguro or malamang.
Tama yata. — I think that's right.
Umalis na yata siya. — He's left already, I think.
Yata is an enclitic: it follows the first full word of the phrase, exactly like na, pa, and daw.
In a formal paragraph they read as measured. In casual chat they read as bookish — the difference between "perhaps" and "maybe" in English, but sharper.
Essay: Marahil ay nagmula ito sa lumang kaugalian.
Chat: Siguro galing 'yan sa lumang ugali.
| Marker | Means | Register | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| daw / raw | they say / reportedly | everyday | Umalis na raw siya. |
| ayon kay + person | according to (person) | neutral / formal | Ayon kay Dr. Cruz, ligtas ito. |
| ayon sa + source | according to (source) | neutral / formal | Ayon sa ulat, tumaas ang bilang. |
| anang | said (speech tag) | literary | "Tama ka," anang matanda. |
| diumano | allegedly | news | Diumano ay nagnakaw ang suspek. |
| sabi-sabi | rumour | casual | Sabi-sabi lang 'yan. |
| sa pagkakaalam ko | as far as I know | neutral | Sa pagkakaalam ko, sarado sila. |
Because they answer different questions, both can appear in one sentence — a probability about a report.
Marahil ay umalis na raw siya. — He has probably left, or so they say.
Tila totoo ang diumano'y natuklasan nila. — What they allegedly discovered seems to be true.
Malamang, ayon sa ulat, tumaas ang presyo. — According to the report, prices have most likely risen.
The order is flexible, but the enclitics (daw/raw, yata) always stay glued to the first full word of their phrase.
Answer high, middle, or low:
Fill in baka, yata, or malamang:
Fill in diumano, ayon kay, ayon sa, or raw:
Answer modality or evidentiality:
You can now calibrate a claim rather than just make one — the single clearest marker of an advanced speaker in any language. Five lessons of grammar are behind you and the structural work of C1 is essentially done. What follows is register: Lesson 6 opens the deep native layer of the vocabulary, the Tagalog underneath the Spanish and the English.